It’s been observed that pundits are better at making predictions than at owning up to them. We’re nearing the halfway point in 2011, which makes this a good time to check in on the predictions I made in December about what this year would bring. So here are my 2011 predictions, ranked based on how well they’ve held up so far – from best to worst. I’ll do a final accounting at the end of the year.
– “Cuts in 2011 budget deal cancel out any economic stimulus from 2010 tax cut/ unemployment deal”: Unfortunately, this one seems to have come true, and there could be more cuts on the way.
– “Michael Steele will lose very badly in RNC re-election bid and then start saying things even more embarrassing for GOP”: Steele indeed lost very badly, and he’s been saying embarrassing things for Republicans (like telling Bill Maher that his losing re-election despite all the seats GOPers picked up was “Republican justice.”). But he hasn’t gotten that much attention doing it so far. See if that changes now that he’s been hired by MSNBC.
– “No federal or statewide officeholder will challenge Obama in Dem primary”: True so far, and I don’t see signs it will change.
– “Glenn Beck will lose a chunk of supporters over strident criticism of GOP congressional leadership”: Beck’s decline seems to have had more to do with his overly obvious bigotry and his overly obscure interests.
– “Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer will feud over Pelosi’s opposition to Obama’s social security cuts”: Too soon to tell.
– “Sarah Palin will dominate media for month w/ conflicting tea leaves on whether she’s running for Prez; ultimately won’t”: Too soon to tell, but I’ll stand by this prediction. Whether she runs or not seems less significant now than it did six months ago though.
– “Journalists will debate ethics of letting Sarah Palin conduct interviews by e-mail”: Hasn’t happened yet, but a guy can hope.
– “GOP House, GOP presidential race lead to all-too-small decrease in John McCain bookings on Meet the Press”: Not looking good. So far, McCain’s been on twice in 2011, compared to 3 times in all of 2010, so he’s actually ahead of schedule.
– “Senate Dems make modest change to filibuster; GOPers call it ‘power grab,’ say Dems ‘poisoned the well’ for 112th Congress”: Nope. Instead we got procedural tweaks that didn’t even dent the filibuster. Guess we’ll have to wait for the Republicans to take the Senate and abolish it.