NERDY PROVOCATION OF THE DAY

With just under a month to election day, below is a ranking of how important each of the competitive statewide races is to me. My cut-off for “competitive” is that the top two candidates are within single digits of each other (in the 538 polling average); among the 30 races that made that cut, I tried to rank without regard to how likely I think the more progressive candidate is to win or lose – only based on how much I want them to win. I tried not to be decide based on which states I live in/ have lived in.

Factors I considered (totally unscientifically) were:
– Population of the state in Governor’s races – the bigger, the more important the race is
– Ideological range between the two candidates most likely to win – the more liberal the candidate I want and the more conservative the one I don’t, the more important the race is
– My guess at how effective each of the candidates would be (at getting legislation passed, defeated, or blocked; at making legislation more or less progressive; and at shifting public debate) – the more effective the candidate I support would be, and the more effective the candidate I oppose would me, the more important the race is

Here’s the ranking I came up with – from most important to least. Where do you agree? Disagree?


1. Feingold over Johnson (WI Sen)
2. Brown over Whitman (CA Gov)
3. Sink over Scott (FL Gov)
4. Sestak over Toomey (PA Sen)
5. Boxer over Fiorina (CA Sen)
6. Blumenthal over McMahon (CT Sen)
7. White over Perry (TX Gov)
8. Strickland over Kasich (OH Gov)
9. Onorato over Corbett (PA Gov)
10. Quinn over Brady (IL Gov)
11. Conway over Paul (KY Sen)
12. Reid over Angle (NV Sen)
13. Bennett over Buck (CO Sen)
14. Murray over Rossi (WA Sen)
15. Hodes over Ayotte (NH Sen)
16. Carnahan over Blount (MO Sen)
17. Giannoulius over Kirk (IL Sen)
18. Patrick over Baker (MA Gov)
19. Barnes over Deal (GA Gov)
20. Manchin over Raese (WV Sen)
21. Dayton over Emmer (MN Gov)
22. Barrett over Walker (WI Gov)
23. O’Malley over Ehrlich (MD Gov)
24. Kitzhaber over Dudley (OR Gov)
25. Malloy over Foley (CT Gov)
26. Denish over Martinez (NM Gov)
27. Mitchell over LePage (ME Gov)
28. Caprio over Robitaille (RI Gov)
29. Shumlin over Dubie (VT Gov)
30. Lynch over Stephen (NH Gov)

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