Zogby has Edwards leading Kerry by 5 (30 to 25) % in South Carolina, with Dean and Clark tied in 3rd place at 10%, Sharpton at 7% and Lieberman a point behind him (although I’m sure Joe’s campaign would argue that he’s in a four-way tie for third place). Kerry is polling with a near majority of the vote in Missouri, with Edwards 35 points behind, Dean 6 behind him at 9%, and Lieberman and Clark tied for 4th (or, in Joe-lingo, a three-way tie for third), with Sharpton a point behind. Clark has just edged ahead of Kerry (28 to 27) in Oklahoma, with Edwards in third at 19%, Lieberman at 7, and Dean at 6. In Arizona, Kerry leads with 40%, with Clark 13 points behind him and Dean 14 points behind Clark; Liberman and Edwards are tied for 4th at 6%.

Zogby’s predictions:

If Kerry wins all four states, you don’t need me to tell you what it means. But if Edwards wins in South Carolina and polls strongly enough to win delegates in Missouri and Oklahoma, he has some significant regional strength and can certainly make a case to go on. If Clark wins Oklahoma and comes in a strong second in Arizona, he also can move on — but it is hard to see where. Dean has already conceded these four states, but winning some delegates in one or two states can help his cause in both Michigan and Wisconsin.

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