From CNN:
Exit polls indicated that health care was the top issue on the minds of voters surveyed Tuesday morning. Twenty-six percent of respondents said health care and Medicare were the biggest factors in their votes.
The U.S.-led war in Iraq followed with 22 percent, and 21 percent identified the economy and jobs as their biggest concerns.
Thomas Schaller on Dean:
Dean’s stump speech right now is as strong, cogent and — how to say it? — “relaxed” as ever. He is generating enthusiasm beyond the fervid, yellow-hatted volunteer imports that mauled Iowa. And he has a better field plan for NH than he did in IA, led as it is by Karen Hicks, his not-to-be-underestimated state director here. He is asking for votes in the earnest, yet assertive way he asked for, and got, key union and superdelegate endorsements.
It all may be too much, too late.
Because the lesson of Iowa is that, despite the Dean campaign’s undeniable mastery and application of many of the past decade’s technological developments, campaigns are still plodding, low-tech, grunt-work endeavors.
Michael Moore defends his description, while endorsing Wesley Clark, of Bush as a deserter. My sense is that technically speaking, Bush was guilty either of desertion or of going AWOL – funny, that one has a pretty negative conotation too. Getting an explanation from Peter Jennings of why he called on Clark to refute Moore’s charge of absurd is about as likely as getting an explanation from Moore of how to reconcile his condemnation of the Kosovo campaign with his praise of the man who led it.
According to the UN, 2003 saw a rise in global unemployment:
“It’s too early to say the worst is over,” said ILO Director-General Juan Somavia. “However, if current estimates of global growth and domestic demand hold steady or improve over the coming year, the global employment picture may brighten somewhat in 2004.” Despite the pickup in economic growth after a two-year slump, the 2003 figures remained at record levels for men and women and escalated more sharply among young people, aged 15-24, the report says.
“Our greatest concern is that if the recovery falters and our hopes for more and better jobs are further delayed, many countries will fail to cut poverty by half as targeted by the Millennium Development Goals for 2015,” Mr. Somavia adds. “But we can reverse this trend and reduce poverty if policy-makers stop treating employment as an afterthought and place decent work at the heart of macroeconomic and social policies.”
Andrew Sullivan defends Judy Steinberg Dean – and her husband on a few counts as well.
A strange juxtaposition, via CNN:
The senator from Massachusetts also took aim at Dean over his comments questioning Kerry’s judgment for voting against the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and for backing a 2002 Senate resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq.
“Mr. Dean is completely wrong,” Kerry told CNN’s “American Morning.” He complained Dean had promised a few days ago to “stop running a negative attack campaign.” “Within two days, he attacked [Federal Reserve Chairman] Alan Greenspan, he attacked every single candidate, he’s attacked me…
Kerry had complained earlier this week that Dean’s tax plan and foreign policy are “just going to kill us.”
Meanwhile Dean and Kerry both try to stake out “comeback kid” territory:
With voting under way in New Hampshire, Sen. John Kerry — who still rejects the front-runner label — said a win Tuesday in the first state Democratic presidential primary would be a major boost to his campaign. Kerry, who surged to a surprising victory in last week’s Iowa caucuses, said, “This is the comeback trail. If I win here, I think that’s enormous.”
…”I was the front-runner in this race for a long time,” Dean said. “Everybody threw everything they could at me. One of the things John will have to learn as a front-runner is to stop whining when people say something different about him.”
Now this is what I call bipartisanship:
Members of the state House of Representatives voted unanimously on Monday to adopt a resolution creating the 10-member bipartisan committee that will decide whether to recommend the impeachment of Gov. John G. Rowland.
“We are about to embark on a solemn and unprecedented journey of historic significance,” said House Speaker Moira K. Lyons, just before the legislators voted 140-to-0 to create the committee. Eleven members were absent.
After the vote, Mr. Rowland released a statement saying he was pleased with the decision. “I have a great deal of respect for the members of the committee and I look forward to a fair inquiry,” he said. “I understand how difficult the work will be.”
A short-sighted move by the Connecticut Banking Commission:
As expected, the banking department Monday backed the controversial change from a depositor-owned to a shareholder-owned bank – a move that will allow the sale of stock to the public and make possible the acquisition of two banks in Greater Hartford.
Monday’s approval disappointed those who had pressured state banking regulators for a depositor vote on the conversion.
Looks like it’s up to the Bank to change course or ignite a boycott.
Well, at least Wesley Clark won’t have to say he came all that way North for nothing:
Traditionally, Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location open the voting in New Hampshire just after midnight.
A statement on General Clark’s Web site said the retired army general received 8 of 15 votes in Dixville Notch and 6 of 17 votes in Hart’s Location.
I have a feeling it’s downhill for the General from here…
My predictions for tomorrow:
Kerry comes in first, simply because Dean hasn’t had enough time to catch up after recovering from whatever combination of his combative stance in Iowa/ his overly-apologetic response to his combative stance in Iowa/ his insufficiently apologetic response to his combative stance in Iowa/ media harping on an imagined combative stance in Iowa/ some combination of the above one may choose to blame for the beating he took in the polls in the past week. Dean comes in second and he and Kerry both pitch themselves as comeback kids; Kerry as usual finds the media more credulous than Dean. Dean comes in closer to Kerry than to the Edwards, who comes in third behind him, lacking the committed and organized constituencies Kerry and Dean have mobilized. Clark does not much, if any, better than he’s been expected to the past few days, and likely even worse – in any case drastically worse than he was expected to a few weeks ago before Kerry stole his part as the anointed “Anti-Dean” and his campaign fumbled and failed to advance a coherent vision or take advantage of what could have been a real head start to build a machine in New Hampshire. If Clark does particularly badly, he strikes me as more likely than any of the other candidates to drop out shortly after, thus ending further embarassment and leaving his Presidential run as a whimsical coda on what many see as an accomplished career as a military public servant. Lieberman does worse than Clark, claims that he exceeded expectations, and argues that Kerry and Dean are both soft on defense and that only he represents a real choice between extremists. Kucinich does much better than Sharpton.
David Corn, in Nashua, questions the local Democratic Chairman’s assertion that “We’re in a war of ideas!”
There is no war of ideas occurring in the New Hampshire primary. There is barely a skirmish…This is a campaign of impressions and identities. The goal: find the right knight to vanquish the evil king. In on-the-stump performance, Dean and Edwards have been far better campaigners than Kerry and Clark. But that might not be enough for them to trip up Kerry the frontrunner.
Of the major contenders, Edwards has the best delivery and the best thematic approach. With passion and sincerity, he critiques the existence of “two Americas”…And he has the healthiest glow of all the candidates–he practically shines–and the best gestures, which come from his days as a trial lawyer. This pitch neatly weaves in his own personal up-from-the-working-class history…Edwards has put together an attractive package. Is it flying off the shelf? The election will tell. His events appear to have the most uncommitted voters in attendance…
Dean also has improved his offering to the voters. He has tried to counter the Scream Heard Around the World with one-liners (“I am so excited to be here, I could just scream”). And he highlights his command of policy….He noted that Barbara Ehrenreich’s book, Nickel and Dimed, which chronicles the travails of low-income workers, ought to be “required reading” for every presidential candidate. At this meeting, Dean came across as a smart, sure-footed, if a bit wonkish, liberal, but one who turned policy into programs in Vermont. And he continues to excite his core voters with his talk of reviving idealism and using people power to “take back the country” from special interests…At Dean rallies and events, his fans appear to be unbowed, undaunted, and still revved up–far more so than the voters who attend campaign events for other candidates…He seems to be the candidate about whom Democratic voters have the strongest feelings–for or against. That may limit his ability to attract voters who are not already on his side.
Kerry may well be benefiting from an opposite dynamic. He does not excite as Dean does (or seduce as effectively as Edwards). But he presents a more conventional–and perhaps–more comfortable choice for New Hampshire Democrats…Maybe it is due to these reasons that Kerry has wider–though not deeper–support than Dean and Edwards. It is not because of his performance on the campaign trail. When it comes to being a candidate, Kerry cannot do better than a B-plus. It’s as if there is a Kerry wall. He says all the right things for a Democrat–but without any magic or music…He may well be a thoughtful, intelligent person–and a war hero/jock…But he still needs a mojo transplant…He is not a bold pick; he is a safe pick. Is it possible that voters craving an anti-Bush champion are responding to the idea of John Kerry more than the actual John Kerry? If so, how far can this relationship go?
Clark, like Kerry, has had a tough time making good on his potential. He essentially had New Hampshire to himself for a week–who counts Senator Joseph Lieberman?–and there are no signs he was able to exploit that opportunity. He entered the race late in September and–no surprise–he has been performing like a candidate who only has four months of experience. At that gathering of leading state Democrats, Clark delivered a speech that failed to rouse the audience. Too much of it was devoted to explaining why he now is a Democrat…He can speak effectively on matters of national security, but he has not yet figured out a larger sales pitch.
…One idea is paramount now: find the guy who can dethrone Bush. Kerry may end up the choice in New Hampshire because his perceived liabilities are less tangible–or less worrisome–than those of Dean and Edwards. Politics, after all, is a relativist endeavor. And fortunately for Kerry, in this race the campaign performances of the candidates might be a small factor. On Tuesday, the contest will likely turn not on what voters feel about the candidates but on what they think they should feel about them.
A federal judge just delivered the first such ruling declaring a piece of the PATRIOT Act unconstitutional:
The Humanitarian Law Project said the plaintiffs were threatened with 15 years in prison if they advised groups on seeking a peaceful resolution of the Kurds’ campaign for self-determination in Turkey.
The judge’s ruling said the law, as written, does not differentiate between impermissible advice on violence and encouraging the use of peaceful, nonviolent means to achieve goals.
Josh Eidelson 